Broadband for All

Posted on December 6, 2009 by Doug Neeper

DFN: Is Free / Fast Broadband WiFi good for society? Is think this is / should be a private sector venture.

Broadband for All May Not Be as Urgent as Many Say
November 29th, 2009 by Andrea Dimaio – A Gartner Blog
http://blogs.gartner.com/andrea_dimaio/2009/11/29/broadband-for-all-may-not-be-as-urgent-as-many-say/

For those who have been in this business for a while, calls for the deployment of telecommunication infrastructures as a foundation for the so-called “information society” are not new. Several cities, counties, regions have invested substantial amounts of money in deploying infrastructure that is either operated by private enterprises or by government-owned ones. Almost inevitably the early plans for e-government and information society in the late nineties were fraught with business cases for infrastructure investments.

After that, around the mid of this decade, we have seen a surge of interest for government-funded wireless infrastructures. Some cities have implemented these, either with own resources or relying on public-private partnerships. However these cities are in a minority, as the actual business case for a complete government-funded wi-fi coverage in urban areas is often far from being very clear.

Over the last year, due the economic recession, infrastructure investments have become popular again, both at the city and at the national level. What drives these calls is often a genuine desire for reaching out to parts of the population which are digitally excluded (e.g Australia) or to modernize historical icons (e.g. Venice).

There seems to be a great enthusiasm today and almost a religious fervor supporting more investments to give high speed broadband access to everybody, and very few questions about whether this has such a high priority as many think.

Case in point, the debate is very hot in Italy, where the national government apparently promised 800 million euro for broadband deployment, but such spending item did not make the cut in next year’s budget. At the same time, another debate is storming the financial capital (Milan), which is going to host the EXPO in 2015, to push for a free-for-all WiFi access. Bloggers, communities, journalists use sentences as strong as “free WiFi is a basic human right”. To those who try to show them that Internet access in the city is pretty high, the reply is that more bandwidth is needed to unleash the power of information. Incidentally Italy is only one example, but this is a common trend.

My position about this is that whether more broadband or free WiFi are required depends on what other priorities for investment are. Is such an infrastructure going to be a component of a smart city strategy, where environmental monitoring, traffic management, smart electric grid all concur to bring the city to the next level? Is there a plan to improve the quality of education or health care or to help better deal with integration issues coming from largely uncontrolled immigration? The problem is that today like 15 years ago, the assumption is that “if you build it, they will come”.

Are we sure? The way many people use high-bandwidth Internet access do today is to access entertainment (including illegal downloading of music and movies or to use VOIP services like Skype to slash their telephone costs. Browsing the Internet for textual content, as well as a fair amount of social networking (where it is not terribly video-intensive) does not require very high-bandwidth, so there is probably still a fair amount of value that people can get from existing infrastructures, if they were just encouraged or educated to do so.

I am all for ultrafast, as-free-as-possible access with significant government investment, if this comes together with serious investments in education (at all levels), healthcare (telemedicine), public safety (web-based CCVT), traffic management (more intelligent road charging schemes), environmental sustainability (web-enabled air and water quality monitoring). One way of justifying a free-for-all WiFi is to figure out how government operations could benefit from it: would a sufficient number of social workers be mobilized? would a sufficient number of teachers be able to overcome the limitations caused by insufficient or poor-quality physical infrastructures (school building, laboratories, etc)?

It is not good enough to ask governments to release the string of their purse without asking them to articulate convincing business cases about how they (and not only “the citizen”) plan to use more broadband.

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Insights into the Dubai Debt Crisis

Posted on December 6, 2009 by Doug Neeper

The Geopolitics Of The Dubai Debt Crisis: It’s Iran vs. The United States
John Carney|Nov. 28, 2009, 6:36 PM | 15,427
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-geopolitics-of-the-dubai-debt-crisis-its-iran-vs-the-united-states-2009-11

The role of Iran may be the most overlooked in the Dubai debt crisis.

Of all the states of the United Arab Emirates federation, Dubai has maintained the closest ties to Iran. Indeed, as international pressure has built on Iran over the past decade, Dubai has prospered from those ties. It provides critical banking and trade links for Iran, often serving as the go-between for European or Asian companies and financial firms that want to do business with Iran without violating international sanctions.

Abu Dhabi, the wealthiest member of the UAE and a close ally of the US, may be pressuring Dubai to limit its links to Iran. Indeed, this pressure may be behind statements coming from Abu Dhabi about offering “selective” support for Dubai. Companies or creditors thought to be too linked to Iran could find themselves shut out of any bailout.

The United States government, which has remained somewhat taciturn throughout this crisis, is no doubt encouraging Abu Dhabi to apply this pressure. In part because of Dubai’s connections to Iran, US financial institutions are not among the biggest creditors to Dubai World.

It’s not all Iran, of course. The problems in Dubai, the member of the United Arab Emirates that has found itself in a dire financial crisis, closely mirror those behind the global financial crisis.

Over the past decade, the country attempted to diversify its economy away from dependence on its declining oil reserves—and largely succeeded. But, like a Wall Street investment bank attempting to overcome the decline of its traditional businesses by becoming heavily invested in leveraged real estate products, Dubai accumulated huge debt obligations—estimated to amount to some $80 billion. Much of Dubai’s assets were dependent on tourism, shipping, construction and real estate—which have been in trouble during the global economic downturn.

Like its fellow members of the UAE, Dubai is ruled by an expansive royal family. In this case, they are called Al Maktoum family. Exactly what counts as the personal property of ruling family and what is government owned in Dubai is more than a bit fuzzy. The Dubai government owns three companies: the Investment Corporation of Dubai; Dubai Holding, which is run by Mohammed Al Gergawi; and Dubai World, which is run by Sultan bin Sulayem.

Abu Dhabi has been trying to put pressure on Dubai to cut ties to Iran. The split between Abu Dhabi and Iran is in part rooted in an older territorial dispute, fear of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, religious differences between Shiites and Sunnis, and—importantly—Abu Dhabi’s close ties to Washington, DC.

The UAE is close to reaching a nuclear power cooperation deal with Washington, a move that many regional experts say would challenge the traditional Saudi hegemony in the Gulf. One sticking point in the negotiations with Washington has been concerns that Dubai could share US nuclear technology with Iran.

This power struggle between Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia is also playing a role. In May, the UAE May pulled out of a proposed Gulf monetary union over Saudi insistence that it would host the regional central bank.

Dubai, which is a very open and tolerant place compared to Iran, is viewed by many Iranians as a place to let their hair down. It has a thriving Iranian ex-pat community. Iran is Dubai airport’s top destination, with more than 300 flights per week.

More importantly, Dubai is a major exporter to Iran and a major re-exporter of Iranian goods. The trade between Iran and Dubai is one of the principal sources of Tehran’s confidence that it can survive US-led sanctions. Iranian investment in Dubai amounts to about US $14 billion each year. US intelligence officials have long suspected that the Iranian government uses Dubai based front companies to get around sanctions.

Some of the banks said to have the largest exposure to Dubai debt have in the past been linked to Iran. Notably, HSBC, BNP Paribas and Standard Chartered came under investigation and pressure from US authorities in recent years to cut ties to Iran. Some US officials have quietly protested that these banks just shifted to doing business with Iran through Dubai. The US may want to see these creditors take losses from their Dubai exposure.

Make no mistake: the US government does not want to see the financial ruin of Dubai. Apart from its ties to Iran, Dubai is widely viewed as a model Islamic country. It has a relatively clean government, and there is a remarkable level of religious tolerance and progressive attitudes toward women for the region. American diplomats have held up Dubai as their model for a new Baghdad—progressive, tolerant, and capitalist.

What is most likely happening is more nuanced. The US and Abu Dhabi are hoping to use Dubai’s financial troubles as a way of finally severing the close ties to Iran. For years, Dubai has enjoyed the benefits of walking the line between its military and economic alliance with the US and economic benefits from banking and trade ties to Iran. The price of a bailout from Abu Dhabi may be having to finally choose to give up the Iran connection.

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Stock Valuation Model – 3 Simple Techniques??

Posted on December 6, 2009 by Doug Neeper

DFN: Not so sure these are ‘simple’ techniques, I’ve been using a far simpler ‘proprietary’ technique that I’ve developed over the years the establishes a per share value, and also the companies "free cash flow / share" using readily available information from Yahoo Finance. I insist on a ‘value’ that is 50% or less of the current market price. Before I I spend the time to value stocks, I’ve been using a Schwab screening ‘tool’ to look for companies to evaluate, screen = A,B, or C rating; Debt / Equity < 50%; Price / Book < 1.0 and return on assets > 0. I will not buy stocks that don’t fit these ‘criteria’. Discipline is the name of this game.

Stock Valuation Model – 3 Simple Techniques to Value Stock
28. Nov, 2009 0 Comments
http://www.moneyhelpyou.com/stock-valuation-model-3-simple-techniques-to-value-stock/

Stock valuation models are methods to value stocks. Everybody knows the stock price but only few understand how much it worth and the other investors do not even care. The reason can be due to different strategies, do not know how to value stock or just do not care how much it worth as long as the price increase the next day. If you are one of the intelligent investors, consider these valuation models in your next purchase.

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

This is probably the most common model that you ever heard when it comes to stock valuation. However, I found it a bit tough to do it. Simply because the discounted cash flow model have to consider revenue growth and the escalated cost at the same time, which can be too difficult to estimate and forecast as an outside investor.

Nevertheless, you can use this method in valuing stock by projecting future cash flow; from the sales and costs, and discount back to current value with Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC).

Dividend Discount Model (DD)

This model suits best for income investors. The idea is to project future dividend distribution based on the average historical dividend payout ratio and discount it back to present value. Although this is the simplest among all, it works best for high dividend yield stocks.

Nonetheless, the stocks must have very strong business performances that can guarantee the dividend payments 10 years down the road. And normally, penny stocks cannot be evaluated this way.

Earnings Growth Model (EG)

This is my favourite method as it is very practical and easy to do. Initially, I project its future earnings using constant or variable growth rate. Either constant or variable growth rate is depends on the expectation of its business performance within that period. Often than not, I normally use the historical business performance as a baseline provided its fundamental value remain intact. Then, I discount the future earnings with the expected return on investment (ROI).

I found this model as highly valuable since the stock price is easily reflected by its earnings. For example, the stock price will reflect its earnings and earnings growth. Assuming the P/E is the same throughout the year, you can expect the stock price to increase the same rate as the company’s growth rate.

So, before buying anymore shares in the future, put some efforts to value the stock. You can reduce the risk of losing money significantly if you buy the stock at much cheaper price than its intrinsic value.

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5 Ways Body Language Can Cost You The Job

Posted on December 6, 2009 by Doug Neeper

DFN: Good tips for how to portray yourself in an interview.

5 Ways Body Language Can Cost You The Job
Posted: 29 Nov 2009 06:44 PM PST
By CAREEREALISM-Approved Expert, Debra Wheatman

What your body conveys can tell far more about your feelings than you suspect. How you stand, your eye contact (or lack thereof), and the position of your hands, among other things send a message. Depending on your body’s language establishes a tone that you subconsciously convey.

Most of the time, you have no idea that you are giving off these signals. They are quite automatic. Oftentimes you have no idea that you are conveying what you are thinking in your body language. You can exhibit some control over negative body language with improved self-awareness and practice.

Here are some negative gestures to think about and avoid:

Crossing your arms in front of you: This signals that you are resistant to ideas and not open to others’ opinions. When speaking with people – especially during an interview keep your hands in your lap. When standing, keep hands at your sides.

Looking down when speaking: Looking down is a sign that you are disinterested or feel inferior. Make sure you maintain eye contact without staring. This will let the other person subliminally know that you are interested in what they have to say. If the eyes are the window of the soul, looking at someone when you are talking to them is a strong indicator that you are engaged. Eye contact is good; staring is creepy!

Checking your watch: There is nothing that screams boredom more than the continuous checking of the time. Do not look at your watch when speaking with someone. You want to convey continued interest in what they are saying. The exchange of information should be an engaging one – not a situation where you appear to be focused on something else.

False Smiling: A smile is one of the very best ways to communicate sincerity and a friendly, approachable demeanor. Don’t force a smile or smile the entire time. That will look odd and raise questions in the mind of the person you are interacting with. A natural smile will resonate during the interview. A genuine smile involves the entire face – a fake forced smile uses only the mouth – and studies indicate that people are very good at seeing the differences.

Poor Posture: Standing up straight with your shoulders back displays confidence and self-assuredness. Slouching immediately makes you look smaller and is indicative of lack of self-confidence. Your posture serves to deliver a clear and positive message about how you should be treated. Leave a lasting positive impression with good posture.
Avoid inappropriate body language and learn how to identify it in others. Make sure you prepare and feel good about yourself to feel good about your interactions with those you know as well as people you are meeting for the first time.

Debra Wheatman has more than 20 years’ experience developing career roadmaps to achieve professional success. Having coached thousands of clients, and written more than 10,000 résumés, Debra understands the importance of proper career planning. She has successfully helped clients negotiate improved compensation and positions in leading organizations. Follow Debra on Twitter.
Photo credit: www.redlakemarketing.com

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Paying off student loans requires smart decisions

Posted on December 6, 2009 by Doug Neeper

DFN: I’m in the midst of evaluating alternatives for paying off student loans I incurred to pay for the education of my two sons who went to Berkeley and Sonoma State.

Paying off student loans requires smart decisions

The average college student carries a record debt load of more than $23,000. Above, Stanford University. (Al Seib / Los Angeles Times / October 23, 2008)

College graduates should manage their debts based on such factors as the kind of loans they have and their ability to pay.

By Kathy M. Kristof Personal Finance
December 6, 2009
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-perfin6-2009dec06,0,5631375.column?page=1&track=rss
http://thecollegesolutionblog.com/
http://www.ed.gov/offices/OSFAP/DirectLoan/index.html

Last June’s college graduates face a tough choice this month. That’s when the automatic six-month deferment on their student loans expires, forcing them to start repaying the money or beg for additional time.

Never have students been so deep in debt and so unprepared to pay.

The average student is carrying a record debt load of more than $23,000, according to a just-released report by the Project on Student Debt. Meanwhile, unemployment among college graduates ages 20 to 24 is the highest in recorded history, at 10.6%.

"With debt and unemployment at record levels, college graduates may feel stuck between a rock and a hard place," said Lauren Asher, president of the Institute for College Access and Success in Berkeley, a nonprofit advocacy group that is affiliated with the Project on Student Debt.

Graduates do have options that could make the debt more manageable, she added. But figuring out the best option with student loans, particularly loans with special bells and whistles, can be mind-boggling, said Lynn O’Shaughnessy, who writes the College Solution blog.

"College graduates have to be really smart about their loans because it is so easy to get in trouble with student debt," she said.

How do you make smart choices?

Separate your debt

If you have been borrowing all the way through school, you probably have a variety of loans with different interest rates and terms. Before considering repayment options, you need to examine the type of loans you have and separate your loans into piles. Gather your documents and sort them by loan type:

* Perkins loans

* Subsidized Stafford loans (the federal loans that you were granted because you had financial need)

* Unsubsidized Stafford loans (federal student loans that anyone can apply for)

* Stafford loans that you got before 2006.

Why should each of these loans be in different categories? Because Perkins loans are issued at extremely low interest rates and offer deferment and loan forgiveness programs that are not available for other types of loans.

If you consolidate a Perkins loan with other types of student debt, some of these special features are lost, said Edie Irons, a spokeswoman for the Project on Student Debt.

Subsidized Stafford loans should be separated because the government pays the interest on them when you are in school and when your loans are in deferment, which means that deferring these loans when you don’t have a job costs you nothing.

Unsubsidized Stafford loans, on the other hand, accrue interest while you are in school and while the payments are being deferred. As a result, the longer you wait to pay on them, the more you owe. If you can’t pay back all your loans right away, these are the loans you should pay back first.

Finally, Stafford loans that were secured before 2006 are issued at variable interest rates that are at rock-bottom levels, now less than 2.5%. It can be smart to consolidate these loans because that allows you to lock in that rate for the life of the loan.

Repayment options

There are five repayment options available for federal student loans. However, the newest of them, income-based repayment, makes two of the others (income-contingent repayment and graduated repayment) largely obsolete. For most borrowers, the best options boil down to:

* Standard repayment, which repays your loan over a 10-year period.

* Extended repayment, which allows you to repay a significant balance over as much as 30 years.

* Income-based repayment, which allows you to pay what you can afford, based on your discretionary income.

If you have sufficient income to repay your loans, standard repayment is the best bet, said Mark Kantrowitz, president of FinAid.org, a website that explains financial aid options. It gets the job done fastest with the lowest overall cost.

However, standard repayment is also the option that produces the highest monthly payment.

If you owed $40,000 at 6.8%, for example, you’d need to pay $460.32 each month under the standard repayment formula. Over 10 years, that would cost you $55,238, which is your $40,000 loan balance plus $15,238 in interest charges.

If you need a lower monthly payment, you could choose the extended repayment option and spread your repayment over 25 years. (The maximum term for extended repayment depends on your balance; the higher the loan balance, the longer you can take to pay.) That would cut your monthly payment to $277.63 a month. It would cost you far more over the life of the loan because you’d end up paying far more in interest charges. This option would cost you a total of $83,289.

With income-based repayment, your monthly payment will vary each year based on how much total student debt you have and how much discretionary income you have. With this option, all of your loans would be repaid according to this formula. (With other repayment choices, you can repay one or more loans on a standard repayment and others on extended repayment; it’s up to you.)

If your earnings are low, income-based repayment could allow you to pay nothing at all, Kantrowitz said. The catch? There’s far more continuing paperwork with this loan because you have to verify your income each year. When your income rises, your payments will too.

But if your income remains low, and you pay religiously for 25 years, any remaining balance after that point is wiped out, Kantrowitz said.

Public service

If you believe you’ll earn a small salary for a long time, primarily because you are in a public service profession, you should consolidate your loans into the Direct Loan program, which is offered through the Department of Education, and choose the income-based repayment option. This gives you low payments now, and your direct loans can be forgiven after 10 years of full-time work in qualifying professions.

Permanent vs. temporary

If you haven’t yet found a job or simply don’t earn enough to repay your loans as scheduled, you have the option of deferring repayment because of unemployment or economic hardship.

However, if you have even a part-time job, you might want to try to pay at least the interest that accrues on the unsubsidized Stafford loans, Irons said.

That would at least keep your loan balance from rising, she said, which could save you a fortune in the long run.

Rescue options

If you choose a repayment plan and decide later that it’s not working, you can shift to a different plan, Kantrowitz said.

So if your standard repayment is killing you, switch to an extended repayment or an income-based repayment, he suggested.

But whatever you do, don’t default on your loans, said O’Shaughnessy, the College Solution blogger.

If you find yourself struggling to make payments, call your lender immediately to see whether you can put your loan in deferment or forbearance, or whether you can switch to a lower monthly payment by switching your repayment option.

If you default, the penalties can drastically boost your loan balance, and student loans are almost impossible to discharge, even in bankruptcy.

"If you default, the penalties and fees are astronomical," O’Shaughnessy said. "It is shocking how quickly they can turn a small loan into an unmanageable debt."

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Clearwire – Only its Spectrum is Valuable

Posted on December 6, 2009 by Doug Neeper

DFN: Clearwire is a ‘subsidiary’ of Sprint, with significant investment from Intel and Google; Clearwire = mobile WiFi. They’ve taken what might be described as a ‘build it they will come’ approach. Revenues in Q32009 running at $69M, SG&A @ $338M, cash @ $1.9B (+), PPE @ $1.9B, equity at ($2.8B). Operating Cash Flow ($117M); US subscribers @ 450K or so; employees @ 2,800+/-; did I say Craig McCaw is the Co-Founder and Co-Chairman? Interested in Telecommunications, not something I’d take on.

Alert To Clearwire’s Investors and Creditors: Only Its Spectrum Is Valuable

December 5, 2009

PrintEmail to a FriendTweet this Analysis

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor
Analysis of: Clearwire’s Recent Financing Spree Jumps To $2.8 Billion With Additional Debt | mocoNews
Published at: moconews.net

Summary

The investors and creditors of Clearwire should hope that someone else will eventually be willing to pay a lot for its spectrum holdings.

Analysis

A very revealing comment was made by Barry West at the recent WiMAX Forum Americas Conference 2009, in response to a presentation by Verizon Wireless on its LTE plans and rollout. He said that Clearwire’s advantage lay not just in its growing WiMAX footprint, but also in its unique spectrum position, i.e. the very large bandwidth (120MHz or more) it possesses in the 2.6GHz band. West said WiMAX and LTE will perform similarly since they are both based on OFDM technology, but Clearwire’s vast spectrum holdings will allow it to stand out from the pack with more competitive price plans such as unlimited data packages. Of course since Clearwire’s spectrum holdings are unlikely to be replicated in other countries, it should be no surprise that the global prospects for mobile WiMAX, except where there are no established alternatives, are unlikely to extend beyond a small niche role.

The comment by West is being made in an environment in which the credibility of and prospects for Clearwire’s being able to build a sustainable business case are becoming increasingly improbable. Claims of superiority of WiMAX’s performance (its current versions and its next profile) compared to contemporaneous versions of HSPA/HSPA+ let alone the versions of LTE that will soon be deployed by competitors with much, much larger customer bases and business and technology ecosystems are unsustainable. The company’s greatest asset (of course "after our employees", as all companies ritually proclaim) will turn out to be its spectrum. So the question arises what this spectrum will be worth if (or when) the company’s business plan collapses. Let’s estimate the total 2.6GHz spectrum holdings involved at some 35 billion MHz POPs ( the maximum of 190 MHz covering 300 million POPs in the U.S. would amount to 57 billion MHz POPs). Then each cent of valuation of this spectrum amounts to $350 million. The highest prices per MHz POP paid globally for 2.6GHz spectrum auctioned for mobile services have been about 32 cents in Hongkong (January, 2009), and the lowest 0.57 cents in Finland (November, 2009), while in May 2008 Sweden came in at about 17cents. Swedish pricing would value Clearwire’s 2.6GHz spectrum holdings in the U.S. at almost $6 billion, but clearly the range is very wide, more than one order of magnitude. This value depends on very diverse national circumstances and perceptions of demand and revenue potential, which for spectrum have historically varied very widely (and wildly) by geography as well as over time. The value Clearwire may be able to command from a buyer can also be boosted by the physical assets it has installed, to the extent the buyer needs and values them if it has its own reusable infrastructure, as well as by the value the buyer may ascribe to Clearwire’s customer base. It is to be hoped that Clearwire’s investors and creditors have considered these possibilities and uncertainties as they negotiated the amounts and conditions of their financial commitments to this company’s risky business plan.

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Keeping a tree farm in the family

Posted on December 6, 2009 by Doug Neeper

DFN: My family and I are going out to get our Christmas Tree today, at a tree farm in Alhambra Valley (border between Lafayette & Martinez).

Keeping a tree farm in the family

John Burgess/The Press Democrat

Adam Parks started working for his grandfather at the Victorian Tree Ranch in Sebastopol when he was just 4 years old. He earned tips carrying trees out to cars back then, but after taking over the 3 generation family business this year, he’s hauling his own trees.

By JULIE JOHNSON
THE PRESS DEMOCRAT

Published: Saturday, December 5, 2009 at 6:31 p.m.
Last Modified: Saturday, December 5, 2009 at 6:31 p.m.

Bob and Sally Parks had been telling their customers for years that 2008 would be the final year they’d sell Christmas trees at their small Sebastopol farm, the Victorian Christmas Tree Ranch.

Bob Parks was battling lung cancer and the couple, in their mid-60s, were preparing to retire.

“It was sad, but we were ready,” Sally Parks said. Her parents had bought the Christmas tree farm on Gravenstein Highway near Mill Station Road 37 years ago.

But in one one of those Christmas-spirit oddities, the sagging economy brought the family business back to life.

Their eldest son, Adam Parks, and his wife, Laura, both 40, were struggling in Stockton to make ends meet running a day care center and his freelance sports marketing business. That, combined with his father’s illness, led to their decision to move to the farm with their two children in February.

As the seasons progressed without the normal year-round preparations for Christmas tree sales, Adam Parks said he couldn’t imagine life on the farm where he was raised without the business.

“My grandfather built this,” Adam Parks said. “I started working here with my grandfather when I was 4.”

So he put together a plan that expanded the family operation to include sending Christmas trees to U.S. troops abroad, offering sales through churches to fund charities, offering weddings and building a Facebook page.

“We accepted his business plan,” Bob Parks said. “Nothing would make us happier than to continue the family business.”

The Christmas tree industry seems to defy economic patterns. Despite rising unemployment rates and debt levels, 2008 was a bumper year for Christmas tree sales, to everyone’s surprise, said Rick Dongey, spokesman with the National Christmas Tree Association.

Americans bought 28.2 million trees in 2008, up from 22.2 million in 2002, according to the association. Dongey said industry experts predict higher sales this year.

Around Sonoma County, Christmas tree sellers agreed with the national assessment.

“We didn’t know what to expect, what with the economy and where people were at,” said Carol Mungle, who runs the Little Hills Christmas Tree Farm in Petaluma with her husband, Kriss.

But families have been pouring in to tromp the grounds, pick out that perfect tree and cut it down.

“I get the feeling that they really want this Christmas to be special,” Mungle said. “It’s not as much about the gifts as it is about family and tradition.”

Diane Davis and her husband, Gary, of Grandma Buddy’s Christmas Trees in Sebastopol, said they were surprised by the high turnout of customers on Thanksgiving weekend, their first open. They offered a wide range of price levels — from $3.99 to $200 — so anyone could afford a tree.

“This year we included more ‘Charlie Browns,’” Diane Davis said, referring to the scrawny Christmas tree loved by the cartoon character.

Davis said they also ordered fewer pre-cut trees and wreaths. But they may have to order more, she said.

“It’s like they aren’t skimping on Christmas,” she said of her customers.

Deep among the trees at Grandma Buddy’s orderly forest, Paula Read, 33, of Forestville and her boyfriend decided to cut down a Christmas tree so that when they do have children, it’ll be a family ritual, she said.

“Plus, we try to support the local community,” Read said. “If you just go pick up a pre-cut tree, it’s not the same. A tree has meaning here.”

Down another pine-scented aisle, Hyunsook Oh, 20, tried to saw through the base of a four-foot-tall Douglas fir. It was her first Christmas season in the United States since arriving from Korea, she said. She handed the saw to her boyfriend.

“It’s harder than I thought,” Oh said.

Her boyfriend, Emanuel House, 28, took on the project, but also found it tough going.

“I prefer to just buy it,” he said between huffs.

Not Oh. “I’m pretty sure I want to do it again next year,” she said.

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